When you’re pregnant, the date on your calendar can feel like the finish line. Friends and family countdown the days. You plan your maternity leave. You imagine meeting your baby right on schedule.

Here’s the truth: only about 4–5% of babies are actually born on their due date. That means 95% of the time, things unfold differently than expected.

The “due date” is really an estimated due date (EDD), most often calculated as 280 days (40 weeks) from the first day of your last menstrual period. That calculation assumes a 28-day cycle and ovulation on day 14, which isn’t the case for many people. Even ultrasound dating, while more accurate early on, is not perfect.

Only 4–5% of births happen exactly on the EDD. About 70% happen within 10 days before or after. First-time parents tend to deliver later, with the median timing around 40 weeks + 5 days and 75% delivering by 41 weeks + 2 days.

In recent years, more babies are being born before their due date because of induction or scheduled cesarean sometimes for essential medical reasons, other times for convenience or preference. The ARRIVE trial, which suggested certain benefits to inducing first-time, low-risk parents at 39 weeks, has also influenced recommendations.

When the due date passes, it’s common to feel pressure from yourself and others. But full-term pregnancy is anywhere from 37 to 42 weeks. Going “past due” isn’t necessarily a sign of a problem often, it’s simply your body and baby following their own timeline.

Your due date is a guide, not a deadline. If you go past it, you’re in good company. If induction is recommended, ask why, explore your options, and make the choice that feels right for your family’s safety and circumstances.

At Carriage House Birth, we help expectant families prepare for all the “what-ifs” of labor not just the due date so you feel confident no matter when your baby arrives. Our birth preferences template makes it simple to share your wishes with your care team, and our childbirth education classes go beyond the basics to cover everything from navigating induction to comfort measures at home and in the hospital.

If you’re ready to swap due date anxiety for informed, empowered decision-making, explore our classes and download your free birth preferences template.